Sera Capital Q3 2020 US LARGE CAP 10-Year Forecast: -1.93%
For those that are reading our forecast for the first time, our philosophy is simple. The best interest rate forecast for the next 10 years is always the current rate on the US 10-Year Bond. It’s silly to think otherwise. The rate today reflects the global viewpoints and wisdom of all participants.
Our equity forecast is slightly different. Research indicates that a 1-year forecast of the S&P 500 is worthless based on statistical analysis. The same holds true for forecasts up to 5 years. However, as you start approaching the 10-year mark, forecasting gets more and more accurate. What we do is aggregate the longer-term forecasts of the most reputable long-term forecasters and techniques to come up with our own.
To calculate our equity forecast, we take an average of GMO’s 7-Year, Research Affiliates’ 10-Year Forecast and Hussman’s 12-Year Forecast.
The following is a link to the forecasters we aggregate in order to come up with our forecast.
US Large Cap: -4.9%
US Large Cap: 0.5%
US Large Cap: -1.4%